184. Global Cargo Vessel Traffic Emissions Prediction under a Changing Climate
Invited abstract in session TA-39: Sustainability in Logistics, stream Sustainable & Resilient Systems and Infrastructures.
Tuesday, 8:30-10:00Room: Newlyn LG.01
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Elise Miller-Hooks
|
| Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering, George Mason University | |
| 2. | Alireza Azadnia
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| Civil, Env. & Infrastructure Engineering, George Mason University | |
| 3. | Wenjie Li
|
| George Mason University |
Abstract
Maritime shipping accounts for approximately 3% of global GHG emissions, a disproportionately large amount of which is from container vessels. As the Arctic warms and sea ice thaws, commercial vessel traffic is expected to grow in this region, affecting global traffic patterns. This presentation describes a risk and flows based methodological framework for estimating emissions from GHGs and other pollutants due to changes in global container vessel traffic flow patterns, and consequential changes in vessel traffic through the Arctic, over coming decades. The method takes as input projections of environmental conditions, including ice thickness, ice concentration, maximum wave height, bathymetry, wind speed and temperature, through 2069 that affect demand for Arctic transit and projects these emissions under these forecasted changing conditions. Emissions reduction policies have been applied or are under consideration that aim to curb emissions from the commercial shipping sector. These policies include implementing emission control areas, carbon tax regulations, virtual arrival strategies and vessel speed reduction incentive programs. How these policies will transform global shipping traffic flow patterns into the future is difficult to assess, yet assessing their effectiveness is crucial to their adoption. The proposed method is applied to investigate the potential effectiveness of two of these control policy implementations on local and global emissions.
Keywords
- OR in Sustainability
- Logistics
- Transportation
Status: accepted
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