161. Scenario-Focused Decision Analysis: A Discussion
Invited abstract in session TD-8: Session in honour of Theo Stewart, stream Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding.
Tuesday, 14:30-16:00Room: Clarendon SR 2.08
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Simon French
|
| Alliance Manchester Business School |
Abstract
Scenarios have been used in risk management for many years, first in scenario planning to identify risks and their possible impacts, which may then be explored using quantitative risk analysis. Qualitative scenario planning has also been used in problem formulation for MCDA studies and more generally to support decision-making and strategic deliberations. Until relatively recently, however, scenario thinking has not been more fully combined with quantitative MCDA studies. There are issues to overcome in forming meaningful quantitative comparisons between scenarios and in presenting the results to decision-makers in ways that help them reach a conclusion which they judge to be requisite. This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible ways forward.
Keywords
- Multi-Objective Decision Making
- Decision Analysis
- Soft OR
Status: accepted
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