1439. Evaluating the Impact of Chokepoint Disruptions in Maritime Transport Networks
Invited abstract in session WB-32: Green maritime and port logistics-1, stream Maritime and Port Logistics.
Wednesday, 10:30-12:00Room: Maurice Keyworth 1.09
Authors (first author is the speaker)
| 1. | Tao Wen
|
| Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester | |
| 2. | Yu-wang Chen
|
| Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester | |
| 3. | Tahir abbas Syed
|
| Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester | |
| 4. | Arijit De
|
| Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester |
Abstract
Maritime transport plays a crucial role in international trade, accounting for over 80% of global transport volume. However, recent disruptions, such as the Ever Given blockage in the Suez Canal and security threats in the Red Sea, have severely impacted global shipping, highlighting the key role of chokepoints. Notably, the 2024 Review of Maritime Transport by the United Nations Trade and Development is titled Navigating Maritime Chokepoints, emphasizing their significance.
This work develops an agent-based model to assess the impact of chokepoint disruptions on ship operations and re-routing decisions, thereby demonstrating their effects on global trade. When encountering a chokepoint disruption, ships make independent decisions based on multiple factors, including disruption duration, deviations in estimated disruption duration, and sensitivity to disruption. Our findings reveal that the time required for the maritime network to return to normal does not increase linearly with disruption duration. Instead, beyond a critical threshold, recovery time begins to decrease due to rational re-routing decisions made by ships. Furthermore, we systematically analyze the impact of ship heterogeneity, including estimation deviations and sensitivity to disruptions, across multiple scenarios. These insights provide valuable guidance for ship operators navigating chokepoint disruptions and can help logistics firms design effective contingency plans to mitigate operational risks.
Keywords
- Risk Analysis and Management
- Decision Analysis
- Graphs and Networks
Status: accepted
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